VICARIOUS ADVICE

December 12th, 2019

Is there any experience so ripe for inflating the ego than when someone asks for your advice about what they should do with their life?

It’s flattering.  Someone views what you are doing and sees something in the process so admirable that they’d like to steer their own life with some of that influence. 

So how does a person approach the difficult answer to this request?  Perhaps some don’t find it difficult at all, but are all too willing to rattle off their own brand of wisdom.  However, doing such is often accomplished by editing the narrative of one’s own life. 

We are all plagued by the “mistakes” that we have made over the years and far too much time is spent wondering what could have been if only we’d had the wisdom we have now to make a better choice.  This, unfortunately, is terrible logic.  As clear as the past might look, hindsight has about as much resolution as our plans for the future.  That is, we can sure imagine it clearly, but how much they accord to reality is an entirely different story.  A different decision in the past would have lead to a completely different future, and just like the future ahead of us at every point, it too would be full of uncertainty and invisible variables that would throw our plans.

And yet when asked for advice from another, we instruct in a way so as to avoid the mistakes we’ve made.  This is a selfishness.  It’s as though we’ve taken the balloon of our own ego from the person who started inflating it with an ask for advice and continued the work of pumping that ego up.

Certainly there is some standard practical advice that is good to hand out, particularly the advice that is not taught in schools, like finances, the importance of exercise, and perhaps even a word or two about meditation. 

But otherwise what is a person to do?  There can’t be a standard formula for a good life because they are categorically different.

If anything, what a person is looking for is information about how to hone their own tools for navigation. 

Do we make decisions out of fear and security, or do we make them out of curiosity and adventure?

The gulf between these two possibilities is based solely on how a person’s internal compass is calibrated.  And bizarrely, both perspectives can have the same fuel – that is: how precious life is.  We can fear losing it and the fact that it ends and seek to protect it.  But in recognizing such preciousness, we can also honor it by living to the fullest.  It’s as though both perspectives are looking from the same place, but it’s an optical illusion, and upon first glance some people see the later, and some the other.

Helping a person confront this duality in their own values may be the most useful thing we can do when asked for general advice.  But this is not necessarily something that we can simply tell someone.  It’s something we must try to evoke, with questions, in order to create a thoughtful space where options can be explored and rearranged.

We may find that the best advice is to simply lead by example, and in this case, we can only grow more effective by being curious about the person asking.  In so doing, we might just pass on some of that curiosity.

This episode references Episode 57: Compass and Tinkered Thinking’s all time most popular Episode, number 6: What’s Your Passion?

HALO OF IGNORANCE

December 11th, 2019

The Dunning-Krugger effect is a phenomenon described in psychology.  It’s when a person grossly overestimates their ability to do something.  We’ve all seen this in some form or another.  Perhaps with a children’s recital where it’s quite understandable and potentially adorable, but also with adults.  Chances are, most of us have also been guilty of this delusion at some point.  Reality eventually comes knocking and we get a cold hard slap in the face, suddenly we realize we aren’t so talented or skilled.

This phenomenon exists on a sort of coin though, or perhaps a spectrum.  There is a symmetrical experience which is perhaps even more pervasive.  It’s when you are so aware of your inability that you become paralyzed, and you don’t even make any effort whatsoever.  The logic is: what’s the point?  It’s not going to result in anything good because I can’t do it.  At most I’ll just embarrass myself for trying.  As opposed to the Dunning-Kruger which encapsulates an obliviousness to one’s situation, this other experience is the result of being hyper aware of the possibility of falling victim to the Dunning-Kruger effect.

This second experience might seem like a safe bet.  And in the short term it is.  Comparatively, there’s no risk of embarrassment at all.  But in the long term, this switches.  Playing it safe in the long term in this way might end up being a total waste of the precious gift of time and life.  Nothing could possibly be worse.

Risking embarrassment is a pretty tepid cost for ensuring that one’s life is not wasted.

The thing about the Dunning-Kruger effect, or rather, someone suffering from it, is that they are far more likely to improve because they are putting something out into the world with their expression of ability (or rather inability) and this creates the opportunity to receive honest feedback.

The person who simply remains paralyzed out from fear of embarrassment has far less opportunity for improvement: 

How are you supposed to get feedback if you do nothing?

It’s because of this asymmetry that most older people will say that they don’t regret what they did, they only regret what they didn’t try to do.  It’s an exercise worth doing.  That is, to politely ask people in the later decades of their life if they regret anything.  It’s amazing how receptive the older generations are to this question, and 99% of them give that same answer.  They wish they’d taken more chances and tried more things.

It’s only by trying something and potentially making a fool of one’s self that we ever develop any abilities whatsoever.  Think of an infant trying to make that black and blue leap into toddler-hood.  It requires standing and wobbling and falling and stumbling and bruised knees and of course the ego takes a lot of humbling blows during this whole process.  But the child slowly learns, and soon enough that kid is scoring goals on ice skates, or flipping skateboards in midair.  Could there be any better example of how we can benefit from the Dunning-Kruger effect than an infant who sees adults who effortlessly walk around, and then stands with the bold assumption that they can do the same, and then that kid falls flat on their face?  The thing with learning how to walk is that the feedback is instantaneous and it’s ruthless.  Gravity is quite honest.

And that’s the key:  Honesty.  The only real reason that the Dunning-Kruger effect can last for any length of time is because a person deluded in such a way is not getting honest feedback from the people they have around.  We fake smile, and clap and say that something was ‘very good’, or perhaps we say euphemistically that it was ‘interesting’, and these less than honest comments create a halo of ignorance around a person.  Echo chambers present a very similar concept, and they are maintained in the same way: the delusion festers without fresh input that challenges what we know.

For anyone seeking to get very good at something, this halo of ignorance is a very important problem and part of the learning process.  Friends who are confident enough to give honest feedback are beyond valuable if for this reason alone.  In essence, such rare people become mirrors for our performance – reflections offering a perspective on our work that is impossible for us to manufacture otherwise, as we are limited to just our one experience.

The lack of such honesty also powers the paralysis of a person who is too fearful to take a chance.  It’s one thing to take a chance and receive honest feedback that is difficult to hear.  It’s even worse to take a chance and remain the fool because no one is willing to give you an honest picture of how you’re doing. 

Both the Dunning-Kruger effect and the corresponding paralysis would disappear if honesty was an ironclad default.  Those suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect would be cured of their delusion quickly, and those who are paralyzed could take heed in the fact that any feedback would be honest, and the chance to improve automatically goes up.

But still, we generate these halos of ignorance.  We do so, presumably, out of a fear of hurting someone’s feelings.  But again, this is short term thinking.  Given enough honest effort, a person will eventually discover the truth about how their efforts are perceived, and then what will that person think when they look back and compare that discovery to the things said by family, friends and coworkers?

As individuals we can pull out two principles: 

be willing to look foolish by taking chances,

and

find people who are honest and nuanced in their perspective.

THE ONLY PROBLEM

December 10th, 2019

No matter what circumstance you find yourself in life, any problem you encounter is a reflection of the only problem.

The problem is the way you think.

Either you have a classical problem in front of you that may actually have a solution, in which case you need to bang your head against it until you see the solution, or rather your mind changes perspective and suddenly you see that solution.

Or,  you just don’t like your situation and then again, such an attitude is indicative of a perspective about your situation.  Ask: is there anyone in the history of humanity that when faced with this situation would be grateful, or unafraid or content?

Chances are quite good.

And even if such a person hasn’t existed, we can begin to simply imagine what that person would be like, and in so doing, we can begin to import that imagined character’s powers into our own mentality.  This imaginative trick might be at the heart of what good actors do.

All problems in life fit into this 2 part framework. 

But for what purpose?  For progress or simply being content?

In this case it’s either and both.  If we come across a problem that might actually have a solution that we can solve in a practical way, then we are looking at a strategy for progress.  We just need to stretch our mind and wrap it around the problem tight enough to get a sense of what a solution would look like.

The second way our thinking can be the problem is when we can’t change the situation.  Like being stuck in the middle of nowhere until the next bus comes along.  In this case our thinking needs changing in order to simply accept the situation and find peace and contentment in the absence of a problem that can be practically solved.

Both circumstances place accountability solely on our own mind.

We must simply first make up our mind to own this accountability.

Any resistance, of course, is a problem in the way you think.

THE ILLUSION OF HINDSIGHT

December 9th, 2019

Looking back, we all have things that we’d do differently.  As they say

Hindsight is 20/20.

Like many aphorisms, this is said so often and it’s so widely accepted, and the explanation feels so intuitive that it seems like a no-brainer.  Our confidence in this apparent truth is similar to the over confidence we have when we make a plan for the future. 

When we design the path to a goal, people generally shy away from discussing contingencies that imply that the plan might not work.  It’s hard not to imagine that this is because there is some kind of insecurity that’s being touched regarding how good the original plan is.  Doubt creeps in and then suddenly everyone involved wonders why go through with it at all if we don’t think it’s going to work?

In an environment where a single commercial can make the value of a company tank by millions it seems as though this binary emotional coin seems to spin at the heart of many financial markets.

We are emotional creatures and having confidence about what our next step forward is very important for the vast majority who have forgotten how to relax and have fun with the possibilities. 

Our ramped up emotional environment turns our perspective into an either/or machine.  We cease to see the gray space between the staggeringly few options we imagine.  This inability to dance with the present into the future blocks a sense of what’s possible.

With the concept of hindsight we apply the same binary thinking to the past as we erroneously do with the future.

Looking back it seems so clear what would go different if we’d made this or that different action.

But we are again making the mistake that we do with the future.

The fact is we can’t be sure what would happen if we’d made a different choice or action.  In all probability there exist other variables that would react to our other set of actions and choices leading to an entirely unknown set of outcomes.

Is this the 20/20 hindsight that is so often referred to?

While it might feel like the past is far more determined than the future, what we are in fact talking about when we think about making different choices in the past is a different future. 

Any future is uncertain, no matter which point in the past we try to branch off from.

A LUCILIUS PARABLE: THE STUFF OF DREAMS

December 8th, 2019

A strange sensation shot up into Lucilius’ mind.  Like a shock of electricity it was as though all his senses bristled.  He froze, realizing that he recognized the moment.  The people in the café, at just that exact angle, the car horns muffled by the closing door.  The draft from the cold outside evaporating in the warmth of the coffee shop.  He’d been prompted by the loud open door to look back, and he knew that when he faced forward again, the girl at the cash register would make a mistake.

“Whoops,” the girl said.  “Pressed the wrong button.  Hold on just a sec,” she mumbled.

The feeling lingered but it felt as though it was fading, as though the memory were melting back into the moment, fleeting like a dream.

Had it been a dream?   He now thought.  Did he remember the moment because he’d dreamt this very scene, this very configuration of light and color, of sound and temperature, these people, this girl’s half smile at her mistake.

It had been a long time since he’d experienced that kind of déjà vu, but never before had he wondered whether it was on account of some sort of prophetic dream.  If you actually happened to dream of the future, then how would it not feel familiar when you finally get there?  The distinction overwhelmed him, filling his mind.

“Vente, Dark and biter.  Hello?”

Lucilius snapped out of it and smiled at the young woman holding the coffee out for him.  He took the coffee, thanking her and instead of heading straight to his lab, he sat down, pulled out a notebook and began to write about the idea.  This connection between dreams and déjà vu.

When he finally got to his lab he called his team together and announced that they were going to put their current project on hold and detour into the curiosity that had struck him.  First they had to find the neurocorrelates of pure recognition.  Was it an emotion, a thought, and did it have some kind of signature across all things that are recognized.  And further more, could it be induced.

After a month of testing with Advanced FMRI scanning, they found their signature, and almost overnight one of Lucilius’ graduate students had devised a way of inducing it in people using transcranial DC stimulation.  With a fairly simple DC helmet, they were able to induce a sense of recognition with the right programming and therefore create déjà vu.  Everyone in the lab tried it to eerie success.  It seemed as though they had cracked the code for the strange mental phenomenon.  There wasn’t an obvious application for the discovery but it would still be a paper that the team would be able to publish, and though it had detoured their other research, it had been worth it.

On the night when it was clear they had succeeded, Lucilius was walking home.  He was reminiscing over the celebration the team had enjoyed after work.  But Lucilius’ slight smile faltered.  He stopped walking. 

Even if the mechanism for recognition had been cracked, that it could be artificial and therefore it was possible that the brain incorrectly paired the phenomenon of recognition with novel events, it didn’t disprove the use of recognition when something was truly being recognized. 

While they could now manufacture déjà vu, they still had not technically invalidated the possibility that someone had seen the future. 

Standing under the orange light of a streetlamp on the cold sidewalk, Lucilius fished his notebook out of a back pocket and flipped to the page he’d written while in the coffee shop.  It could still be a dream.  Certainly it might be possible to dream something mundane that is similar to some probable circumstance in life and therefore seem prophetic.  But would it happen as often as people experienced déjà vu?

They had to explore deeper.  Lucilius stayed up late into the night, trying to figure out how they might be able to answer the question, and his thirst for the answer again drove his lab away from their work and into another rabbit hole.  Over the course of the next year they designed and built a new way to monitor brain activity.  Sensors had to be imbedded into key points in the skull where the resolution of neural activity was improved to the point where a supercomputer could deduce the structure of the brain down to the neuron based solely on the activity of that brain structure.  With this they began to record the experience of life, of consciousness itself and most importantly to their cause, they recorded the stuff of dreams.

The thinking was that if the pattern of brain activity during a dream ever correlated later on with the stuff of waking life, and if that experience of waking life was accompanied by a sense of recognition, then it would show that a person had somehow managed to imagine the future in a dream.

This was the thinking, but Lucilius and the team simply didn’t anticipate what would happen.  Once word got out that they had cracked the vault and that dreams could be recorded, the call for commercial application exploded.  Before long people were buying into a simple procedure to record their dreams.

Lucilius founded a company to handle the commercial product, and he did so with the grave worry that they’d have access to people’s dreams.  To circumvent the security risk, they simply collected the data in encrypted form and kept it stored that way, and while the customer had access to review their dreams, no one associated with Lucilius’ Dream company had access.  They designed the system so that it only looked for matches between dream states and waking states.  The company instantly started bringing in money and huge amounts of data.  Lucilius was certain they would discover the truth behind déjà vu, and the possibility of dreaming prophecy.

Lucilius was sitting at the computer with his team huddled around as they reviewed the data from the first batch.  No correlations found.

“Well, the dataset is still small,” Lucilius announced as the team eased away from the computer and some began to walk back to their own workstations.  The computer continued to process as more data registered, and the correlation count stayed at zero.  The team got on with their daily work and all grew accustomed to the occasional register of more data.

Later that evening, just as Lucilius was falling asleep, his phone rang.  He answered and an ecstatic grad student was babbling.

“Slow down, what’s going on?”

“Correlation.  The correlation count is 2.”

Lucilius sat up in bed.  “Error?” he asked.

“I looked at the data myself.  Nearly identical.”

Within a week it was clear that the number of correlations between dreams and reality was accelerating. 

After much research involving thousands of interviews, Lucilius’ team discovered that a high percentage of early adopters had spontaneously developed the ability to lucid dream, that is, they could realize they were dreaming while still in a dream, and with this realization came the ability to control their dreams.    It was the productivity community that had discovered the value of recording dreams.  Instructions about inducing lucid dreaming had spread across social media platforms across the users, and this community interested in productivity hacking had wondered together and began to experiment with simulating the next day’s events to increase their effectiveness.  Just as top athletes will often use visualization techniques and attempt to see themselves physically achieving their goals, these productivity hackers had begun crafting their lucid dreams like the next day’s board meeting, the next day’s sales pitch, the next romantic date, the next work out, and even rough drafts for the next day’s writing. 

When this finally became clear, Lucilius knew that he was ready to change the course of is lab’s research.  But he wasn’t done dreaming. He wiped the slate of his mind’s eye clear of plans about recording devices and the neurocorrlates of recognition.  All of that would come and as it felt, he still had an hour’s worth of dreaming before he had to start his day.  It was time to have a little fun.

He looked up in the now blank dreamscape to see a space craft descending.  Stabilizing thrusters hissed and sputtered, keeping the craft steady as huge landing gear emerged from compartments in the belly of the metal ship.  The hydraulic suspension eased and bounced gently as the starship came to rest before Lucilius.  A door opened and a landing ramp extended down to the blank white ground.  Lucilius walked towards his spacecraft and as he hiked up the ramp with the intention to explore a particularly strange planet on the outer rim of his imagination, he wondered how it would all go when he woke up.  After enough times running the simulation over the last few weeks it was clear he was on to something with all this thought about déjà vu and recognition.  He smiled, wondering if there really would be a new girl training at the coffee shop, and if she’d make her mistake on the computer just as his waking self would remember what he’d just lived now in the lucid realm.  The hatch to the starship slid shut and the engines began to glow.  The blank dreamscape began to melt away as a sandy scene rippled to life from the distance.  A clear blue sky with two moons filled in the arching view overhead and the starship’s engine’s began to glow.  Lucilius’ space ship lifted off the sandy ground, and then angled for a distant point in the wide sky before glowing engines brightened to a blinding pitch and then Lucilius was gone, off to explore the infinite recesses of his own mind.